Weekly Crop Commentary - 3/1/2024

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

I hope everyone survived the storms earlier this week with no major damage. This cold front appears to be moving out and it looks like we might reach 70 degrees come the end of the weekend into the first of next week. Spring planting will be here before we know it!

Soybeans took out their lows this week, while corn bulls have been trying to continue a 4-day consecutive positive trend. Bean exports continue to lag due to cheaper South American values as they’re in the glut slot of harvest. Currently, Brazil’s soybean harvest is estimated at 42% complete, which is ahead of last year’s 31.5% pace. As for corn, the safrinha planting is also progressing at an above-average pace at 67% compared to last year’s 46.7%. However, it does sound like Brazil could see rains increase later next week, which will slow bean harvest, but improve moisture for corn growth.

Thank you to all of you who attended our regional grain marketing meetings this past month! We hope that you took away a few nuggets of wisdom to help you navigate these volatile markets. Remember that we are here to help you along the way and work with you to develop a plan that fits the needs of your operation. Keep an eye out for more details next week on our corn and soybean averaging programs! These are a great tool for capturing an average price over historically price-friendly time frames. 

Hope you all have a wonderful weekend!

Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

We turned the calendar to March, and we are less than 45 days before we will see planters rolling here in Champaign County if the weather cooperates. We are several weeks away from the best time of the year March Madness. We cannot complain about the winter so far as we have had very few stretches of harsh weather.

The corn market finally found a bottom and we have had a 20¢ rally this week. Do I think today we have another 50 to 75¢? No, not if we don’t have issues this spring. I saw from one of our StoneX analysts that if the funds are going from a short position to a neutral position prior to planting, we could see a price spike, but not a large one.

We have to keep in mind we are dealing with a large carryover today and muted demand. We may not like the prices we are seeing posted today but they are what they are. Reward the market when it gives you something. This is the time to not try and hit a home run but singles on top of singles to get your old and new crop grain sold.